How Much Would Clinton, Sanders, And Trump Add to the Debt?

Our Fiscal FactCheck project released updated analyses of Donald Trump's and Senator Bernie Sanders's campaign proposals today, reflecting new policies and new baseline projections. These analyses are now fully comparable to our estimates of Secretary Hillary Clinton's proposals published last week. Based on our analyses, all three candidates would allow debt to grow from its current level of about 75 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). By 2026, debt would likely grow to 86 percent of GDP under Secretary Clinton's plans, between 94 and 140 percent of GDP under Senator Sanders's plans (depending on the cost of his health care plan), and 129 percent of GDP under Donald Trump's plans.

 

The most significant update to our analysis of Donald Trump's plans is related to the release of his plan to repeal and replace Obamacare (released subsequent to our prior analysis), which we estimate will cost up to $550 billion over a decade. We also adjusted our analysis of Donald Trump's plan to accommodate a wider range of outcomes by offering high, low, and central cost estimates.

Our latest estimates for Senator Sanders incorporate his new affordable housing plan that increases federal spending and tax breaks related to rental housing and homeownership. We estimate this plan alone could cost $200 billion or more over a decade.


As in our prior analyses, our updates show the magnitude of policy changes or economic growth that would be necessary in order for Senator Sanders and Donald Trump to reach various fiscal targets, given the promises they have already made.

You can read all three of our analyses on the remaining presidential candidates on our Fiscal FactCheck website or visit them directly:

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